Peter Obi of the Labour Party seems to be ahead of the other presidential candidates, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples party (NNPP) in an NOI Polls for September 2022 that was regarded inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner.
However, the poll, commissioned by Peterside Atedo’s Anap Foundation substantially showed close race between them but also showed a significant lead for Obi with 21% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% each proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3% of
voters proposing to vote for him.
According to the results in the release by Peterside, all other contestants polled results that are statistically insignificant.
The result suggests a three-horse presidential race between Obi, Bola Tinubu of APC and Atiku Abubakar of PDP.
“In summary, our September 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner, as the undecided
voters are large enough to turn the tables.
However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only.“the statement added.
The statement signed by Peterside, president of Anap further said, “Obi’s 8 percentage point lead at this early stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him completely from a leading pack of candidates scoring 21%, 13% and 13% respectively.
Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 32% and 15%
respectively.
The gender split of undecided voters shows that 39% of women are undecided versus 27% of male voters. “
The percentage of registered voters, according to the data released showed that in each of the zones – 99% in the North East, 90% in the South South, the North Central and the North West respectively.
The lowest registered voter percentages were in the South East with 88% and the South West with 85%
When the respondents were asked if they were aware of the various candidates vying for the Presidency, data gathered showed that
99% of the respondents were aware of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. 98% were aware of Alhaji Atiku
Abubakar of the PDP. 95% were aware of Mr. Peter Obi of LP and 74% were aware of Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the
NNPP.
All other candidates scored below 55% in terms of name recognition.
Infact, the data summarizes top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, including need to tackle insecurity (45%), Economy (20%), Education (9%), Unemployment (7%) and
Poverty alleviation (4%).
ALSO, 46% of the respondents would love to see their preferred Presidential candidates participate in a televised interview
and/or debate, spanning across topics like their party manifestos, issues of Security, Economy, Education, Job Creation, Healthcare and Agriculture amongst others.
According to the statement, “It is worthy of note that 69% of those aged 18-25, 76% of those aged 26-35, 77% of those aged 36-45, 87% of those
aged 46-60 and 89% of those aged 61+ responded saying that they would definitely vote in the coming elections.
The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 46-60 and 61+ years.
On average, the
Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next
presidential election.
If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the February 2023 elections.“
The data further showed that Obi led the pack in virtually all the age categories i.e. his leadership was not confined to the youths only.
“While these Poll results show some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the
undecided/swing voters, as it appears they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the
President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.“
NOIPolls Limited is a leading polls agency for country-specific polling services in West Africa.
It conducts periodic opinion polls and
studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria.
Anap Foundation has been
carrying out a series of Elections polls since 2011 with the main objective of providing information on opinion
research during election periods.
