South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) led in early results from municipal elections on Thursday but with a sharply reduced share of the vote, although counting was still at a preliminary stage and the picture could change significantly.
With around 12% of votes counted by 0424 GMT, the ANC had about 32% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 31%, results from the election commission showed.
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The outcome will help shape the political landscape ahead of the 2029 national election and could influence the succession battle within the ANC as President Cyril Ramaphosa nears the end of his term as party leader in 2027.
The early tally in the municipal elections may not mirror the final results, with only a small proportion of districts reporting in populous Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, home to some of the country’s biggest cities.
But a projection given by South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research suggested the ANC could end up in the final tally with the same percentage of votes as it has now.
The CSIR, a leading local research organisation, told public broadcaster that its projections based on 11.5% of voting districts having declared results showed the ANC would get about 32% in the final tally and the DA 26%.
The Nov. 4 vote was widely predicted to see the ANC lose ground nationally as voters punished it for high crime rates, corruption scandals and failing basic services such as water and electricity.
The ANC won 46% of votes in the last municipal elections in 2021, down from 62% in 2011. Its main competitor, the Democratic Alliance, has hovered around 22% of votes in recent years, while a number of smaller parties have vied for space.
Major municipalities including Johannesburg are not expected to have any clear winner, meaning that parties will have to negotiate to form coalition governments.
They will have two weeks from the declaration of results – expected on Sunday – to do so.
Analysts have said that best option for stability in cities such as Johannesburg would be for the ANC to partner with the DA, mirroring the arrangement they have in national government.
But the two are ideologically opposed on key issues such as racial redress. The ANC could also decide to team up with the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters and former president Jacob Zuma’s party uMkhonto weSizwe, cutting out the pro-business DA.
