John Danjuma Omachonu
Whether its coincidence or calculation, the unveiling by the ruling party, APC 12 states for President Bola Tinubu’s personal campaign on Thursday and the appoitment of six Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC) officials by president Tinubu on Friday may have set tongues wagging
On Thursday Oct 16, 2026, the party released its campaign timetable, spanning over two and a half weeks,
from Oct 24 2026 – Jan 9 2027, 36 states + FCT
president Tinubu will personally lead the campaign train in only 12 states: Kaduna [Oct 24 flag-off], Rivers [Port Harcourt Nov 7], Plateau [Jos Nov 14], Oyo [Ibadan Nov 21], Borno [Maiduguri Nov 25], Enugu [Nov 28], Bauchi [Nov 29], Sokoto [Dec 5], Delta [Asaba Dec 12], Kano [Dec 17], Adamawa [Yola Jan 4], Lagos [Jan 9 grand finale]
The statement said the president won’t attend all rallies, to focus on governance as surrogates are expected to cover the rest 24 states:
Interestingly, three of the 12 are opposition strongholds — Oyo [Makinde APM candidate], Bauchi [APM-ruled], Adamawa [Atiku ADC home state]. Kano is northern vote hub
On Friday Oct 16, Bayo Onanuga statement said Dr. Dr Bala Bila NE National Commissioner has been reappointed by the president.
Also, four new National Commissioners: Prof Mustapha Aliu NW to replace Prof Abdullahi Zuru, Bashir Muhammed Umar NC to replace Prof Muhammad Adamu, Mrs Oluwatoyin Babalola SW [currently REC Osun] to replace Prof Cornelius Ajayi whose tenure expires Oct 24
– 2 RECs: Dr Samuel Akinjide Akinleye [retired perm sec] Ekiti, Zahradden Basiru Sanusi Jigawa to replace Prof Saidu Ahmed Babura
The statement said the development was ocaaaioned by vacancies from expiring tenures. Senate screening pending, with the president urging expeditious action ahead of January 2027 general elections.
Two announcements, 24 hours apart, have put INEC back at the centre of 2027 anxieties
It concerns election administration. It concerns campaign strategy. On paper, they are unrelated.
But political watchers say the coincidence is too neat to ignore:
The first reshapes who conducts the election. The second reveals where the ruling party thinks the election will be won.
Although neither establishes a change in voter preferences, in a system where INEC still battles a trust deficit from 2023, timing matters as much as procedure.
Political watchers say effecrively, the road to January 2027 general elections officially began this week with the two moves that, also the opposition parties are already framing as apprehension.
What The Itinerary Reveals
The Geographical Distribution Is Notable.
North-West: Kaduna, Kano and Sokoto are included. These states have different political histories, including Kwankwaso’s substantial 2023 presidential vote in Kano on the NNPP platform. His current association with the NDC makes party organisation in Kano particularly relevant.
North-East: Adamawa, Bauchi and Borno are included. Adamawa is Atiku Abubakar’s home state, while Borno is Vice-President Kashim Shettima’s political base.
North-Central: Plateau is selected. Peter Obi carried the state in 2023, although current party alignments differ from those of that election.
South-East: Enugu is included, providing a direct campaign appearance in a state where Obi received substantial support in 2023.
South-South: Rivers and Delta feature. The APC’s cross-party cooperation with Nyesom Wike is relevant in Rivers, although the state’s presidential and governorship contests require separate assessments.
South-West: Oyo and Lagos are selected. Oyo Governor Seyi Makinde is contesting the presidency on the APM platform, while Lagos remains important because Obi won the state’s presidential vote in 2023.
These are observations about campaign deployment and historical results, not forecasts of voting behaviour in 2027.
Electoral assessment: The APC’s geographical campaign priorities are now more clearly documented. No verified voter-support adjustment, either.
Why This Matters
The appointments come three months before the presidential election and while INEC is managing disputes over candidate eligibility.
The immediate questions concern the nominees’ qualifications, institutional independence and the transparency of their confirmation process.
No evidence has been presented establishing that the nominations are intended to favour a political party. Equally, their timing makes legislative scrutiny particularly important.
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Electoral assessment: National election-administration watchpoint added. No change to party-strength assessments.
How To Frame Trust Deficit
Analysts are not questioning the legality of Section 154(1) of Constitution that gives President power to appoint INEC Commissioners subject to Senate confirmation, and parties can campaign where they choose.
The concern is legitimacy, bordering on possible three factors:
Recency and memory: 2023 election still litigated in public opinion with IReV failure, glitches. Any change in INEC leadership less than 90 days to election triggers suspicion, even if routine retirement.
Also the geography as signal. Of the 12 states president Tinubu picked personally, 5 are states APC lost or narrowly won in 2023: Kano, Rivers, Plateau, Enugu, Adamawa.
Choosing to go personally there signals APC sees them as must-win flips, not safe zones. That invites question of whether INEC appointments in NW, NC, SW will strengthen control in those corridors?
The process opacity should also be considered. This is because no public vetting of INEC nominees’ partisan history yet.
However, civil society will ask: Were they card-carrying members? Did they pass INEC’s own 2022 guideline barring partisan appointees? Babalola moving from REC Osun to National Commissioner SW — promotion or strategic move?, according to Channels Television news
What INEC Should Do
The elecroral umpire needs to publish nominees’ CVs and affidavits of non-partisanship now, not after Senate screening. APC needs to explain its 12-state logic beyond logistics — why Rivers and Kano and not Katsina or Imo? Without that, coincidence becomes narrative, and narrative becomes trust deficit — the one thing an umpire cannot afford.
The Wilder Electoral Picture
The ADC, PDP, Labour Party, NNPP, NDC and significant regional parties remain under observation.
No newly verified development today establishes a material change in their candidate arrangements, coalitions or measured voter support.
The previously reported governorship nomination disputes also remain unresolved in the information reviewed.
INEC’s October 24 deadline for parties to report candidates they believe were wrongly omitted remains an important watchpoint.
No new INEC-administered election result, state electoral commission local-government result or credible voter-preference poll warrants a separate electoral-map adjustment.
The Bottom Line
Today’s developments concern two different aspects of the election.
The nominations to INEC raise questions about institutional preparation and oversight.
The APC’s campaign itinerary reveals where the President intends to concentrate his personal campaign appearances.
Both developments are consequential for understanding how the election is being organised.
But where a candidate chooses to campaign is not evidence of where voters will ultimately place their ballots.
The immediate developments to watch are Senate consideration of the INEC nominees, the October 24 candidate-omission deadline and the commencement of the APC’s nationwide campaign.
