President Bola Tinubu’s administration secured $50 billion in foreign investment commitments from summits in India, UAE, Germany and the US, among others, during his foreign trips, since May 2023, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show.
The pledges were announced following presidential trips and investment forums with targets on key sectors including, energy, manufacturing, agriculture, and technology, among others.
Part of the pledges included, India G20 Summit, $14bn; UAE, $10bn+ after FX agreement; Germany, $500m in renewable energy; Saudi Arabia, US, Netherlands and others making up the over $50bn anticipated investments.
The engagements also included official state visits, multilateral summits, bilateral meetings, investment engagements, diplomatic functions and working vacations.
Some of the major investment pledges include ExxonMobil’s $10 billion for expanding deepwater oil production, APPL’s €9.2 billion for the Hydrogen Polis project in Akwa Ibom State, and Indorama’s $8 billion to expand petrochemical and fertilizer facilities in Rivers State.
Other commitments include Jindal Steel’s $3 billion for iron ore processing and steel production, Shell’s $3 billion for oil and gas investments, and Arise Integrated Industrial Platforms’ $3.5 billion for infrastructure and industrial development.
But data shows actual FDI inflows into Nigeria stood at just $2.06 billion within the same period, raising concerns about the wide $47.94bn gap between promises and performance.
The development has also elicited questions on timelines, bottlenecks, and delivery mechanisms, as well as the comtinued overseas trips of the president and the much expected investor confidence as well as the ease of doing business.
Analysts and investors say policy uncertainty, FX volatility and insecurity are slowing the conversion of pledges to real money.
Specifically, President Tinubu has embarked on more than 36 foreign trips in over three years of his administration, visiting countries across Africa, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, the Caribbean and the Americas, with about N37.6 billion reportedly spent on travel-related expenses, according to Nairametrics.
The commitments, secured through the President’s foreign trips and diplomatic engagements, span sectors including energy, manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, technology and infrastructure.
While the administration sees the commitments as evidence of growing investor confidence, the wide gap between pledged investments and actual inflows has generated mixed reactions, among Nigerians.
What NBS Data Say
Nigeria attracted about $47.6 billion in foreign capital between May 2023 and the first quarter of 2026, marking one of the strongest three-year periods for capital inflows since 2019, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
A closer look at the capital importation data shows that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) accounted for only a small fraction of the $47.6 billion that entered Nigeria during the period.
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Nairametrics’ compilation of NBS data shows that approximately $2.06 billion in FDI flowed into Nigeria between May 2023 and the first quarter of 2026, representing about 4.3% of total capital importation.
FDI inflows stood at $86.03 million in Q2 2023, $59.77 million in Q3, $183.97 million in Q4 and $119.18 million in Q1 2024.
Inflows stood at $29.83 million in Q2 2024, $103.82 million in Q3 and $421.88 million in Q4, the highest quarterly inflow recorded during the period.
FDI stood at $126.29 million in Q1 2025, $142.67 million in Q2, $296.25 million in Q3, $357.8 million in Q4 and $135.08 million in Q1 2026.
The figures show a significant gap between investment commitments announced by the Tinubu administration and FDI that has actually entered the economy.
However, some other analysts say commitments do not translate immediately into capital inflows, as large investments can take years to materialise.
This is because, they further reason, businesses consider financing, regulatory approvals, exchange-rate risks and other operating conditions.
This makes announced commitments an imperfect benchmark for measuring actual investment flows. While they indicate investor interest and a potential pipeline of projects, realised FDI provides a clearer measure of capital that has actually been deployed.
Why The Concerns
Analysts have continued to express concerns over the growing dominance of foreign portfolio invesments, often regarded as ‘hot funds’ in Nigeria’s capital importation, FDI.
According to NBS, of the total $23.22 billion capital importation in 2025, the much needed FDI accounted for $923.01, representing less than 4 percent, 3.97 percent of aggregate inflows.
This is despite sharp increment from $12.32 billion of 2024, where FDI accounted for $674.71 or 5.48% of total capital importation.
The analysts are of the opinion that with the bulk of the increases coming from foreign portfolio investors rather than long-term direct investors, associated with factory investment, business expansion and durable job creation, economic development will remain a difficult task as the portfolio invesrors couod keave anytime
They urge leaders to be more committed to the real economic growth through determination and political will.
