Latest analysis shows climate-driven shocks could significantly worsen food insecurity in 45 countries
Rome, Italy, 05 August 2026 -/African Media Agency (AMA)/ – Analysis from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) shows that the strengthening El Niño weather pattern is set to significantly worsen food insecurity in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries into 2027. The agency is ramping up its preparedness and response efforts as impacts from El Niño are already hitting the most vulnerable on the frontlines of hunger.
“El Niño is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable,” said Carl Skau, WFP’s Acting Executive Director. “The sooner we help families to prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods. Severe floods and droughts can quickly push communities from coping to crisis. WFP is already ramping-up early response efforts in eight countries, and we stand ready to do even more.”
El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026, but in many locations the effects will be felt throughout 2027, due to impacts on future harvest cycles. Drought, flooding and extreme temperatures are already putting communities at risk.
WFP and its partners are taking early action now, preparing for floods, droughts, and storms before they hit, to reduce humanitarian needs. Working closely with FAO, OCHA and other partners, WFP has active anticipatory action plans in over 50 countries, is supporting governments in their preparations, and helping communities to reduce risks.
Since May, WFP has triggered anticipatory action plans in South Sudan, Chad, Mauritania, Uganda, Guatemala, and El Salvador, providing over USD 14 million in life-saving responses to support half a million people. This includes scaling its pre-arranged financing mechanisms such as disaster risk insurance, credit, and digital payments, to make more money available at lower cost.
These efforts help communities and governments prepare for and withstand sudden shocks while reducing future humanitarian needs. In fact, experiences from prior El Niño events have shown that USD 1 invested in anticipatory programs can save between USD 3 and USD 7 in avoided losses and response costs.
PROJECTED SCALE OF EL NIÑO IMPACT
The 2015-2016 El Niño impacted the food security of 60-100 million people. WFP’s early analysis projects that this 2026-2027 El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
The analysis focused on 45 countries already considered food insecure, and where El Niño will significantly influence rainfall patterns, temperatures and the occurrence of floods and droughts. Across these countries, the total number of acutely food insecure people (families that are unable to meet their daily food needs) would rise from approximately 225 million to 274 million people: an increase of approximately 22 percent.
The largest impacts are expected in parts of Central America and southern Africa, with significant effects also anticipated in eastern Africa and south and southeast Asia.
WFP expects that countries already grappling with poverty, conflict, economic instability and repeated weather extremes will likely bear the brunt of El Niño, and that its impact will not be experienced uniformly. Some countries are already experiencing below-average rainfall, flooding, and unusually hot temperatures, while others are expected to face deteriorating conditions during upcoming planting seasons and harvests.
Key findings of the report include:
- Latin America and the Caribbean could see one of the sharpest rises in food insecurity with more than 16 million people affected. Particularly, Central America is projected to have the largest proportional increase (83.1%) of all analyzed areas.
- East and Southern Africa face substantial risks, particularly where upcoming rainy seasons are critical for food production. More than 18 million people could see their food security deteriorate, representing a 26 percent increase. Southern African countries are particularly exposed because many households depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture.
- Asia and the Pacific could see significant impacts in several already vulnerable countries with an estimated 8.2 million additional people facing acute food insecurity.
- West and Central Africa are also at risk with food insecurity projected to increase by 12 percent, affecting nearly 6 million additional people.
WFP and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have already appealed for increased support to help at-risk communities prepare for El Niño to help protect lives, livelihoods and food security before emergencies escalate.
Distributed by African Media Agency (AMA) on behalf of Word Food Programme.
Note to editors:
Methodology & background: This initial modelling exercise covers 45 countries that are most vulnerable to negative El Niño impacts and where robust food security data are available. The analysis relies on historical evidence from previous El Niño events, food security baselines, risk factors and expert judgement, to estimate the number of people who could be pushed into acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or equivalent and above) as a result of El Niño-related shocks. This analysis focuses on countries where El Niño is expected to deepen food insecurity, rather than on regions where its effects may be limited or beneficial.
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