Oil prices climbed on Monday after OPEC+ decided to hold off production hikes in the first quarter of next year, which eased rising fears of a supply glut, but weak factory data in Asia capped the gains.
Brent crude futures rose 24 cents, or 0.37%, to $65.01 a barrel by 0424 GMT after closing 7 cents higher on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.19 a barrel, up 21 cents, or 0.34%, after settling up 41 cents in the previous session.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as for October and November.
“Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026,” the group said in a statement.
ING’s Head of Commodities Research Warren Patterson said the OPEC+ decision appears to be an acknowledgment of the large surplus that the market faces, particularly through early next year.
“Obviously, still plenty of uncertainty over the scale of the surplus, which will be dependent on how disruptive U.S. sanctions will be to Russian oil flows,” he added.
RBC Capital’s Head of Commodities Strategy Helima Croft also noted that Russia remains a key supply wild card in the wake of the U.S. imposing sanctions on top Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil as well as the ongoing strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure as part of the Ukraine war.
“There is ample ground for a cautious approach given the uncertainty over the Q1 supply picture and the anticipated demand softness,” she said.
A Ukrainian drone attack struck Tuapse on Sunday, one of Russia’s main Black Sea oil ports, causing a fire and damaging at least one ship.
Brent and WTI both fell more than 2% in October, down for a third straight month, hitting a five-month low on October 20 on the supply glut fears and economic concerns about U.S. tariffs.
Analysts are holding their oil price forecasts largely unchanged as rising OPEC+ output and lacklustre demand offset geopolitical risks to supply, a Reuters poll showed.
Estimates of oil market surplus ranged anywhere from 190,000 to 3 million bpd.
The Energy Information Administration reported on Friday that U.S. crude oil output rose 86,000 bpd to a record 13.8 million bpd in August.
Headwinds for Asia’s big manufacturing hubs persisted in October, business surveys showed on Monday, as weak U.S. demand and tariffs under President Donald Trump hit factory orders across the region. Asia is the world’s biggest oil-consuming region.
On Friday, President Donald Trump denied he was considering strikes inside OPEC member Venezuela amid intensifying expectations that Washington may expand drug-trafficking-related operations there.
Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Christian Schmollinger
