*Analysts Berate NBS, Proffer Solutions
Nigeria’s ambition to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030 faces significant challenges, according to some analysts.
This, according to them, is beside the integrity issues of data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Until recently, the NBS, they added, was lauded for its independence and professionalism, but recent actions typified by ‘deleting of report on unemployment with the alarming figures and unusual silence’ suggest infiltration of ‘external forces’ in its job.
Specifically, they say the most recent addition to the controversies is the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, observing that, while the latest report shows signs of economic growth, public sentiment, based on realities on ground, suggest otherwise.
While some see it as mere academic exercise allegedly to ‘pacify’ some interests, others doubt the integrity of the report as small businesses are folding, manufacturing is slowing, and the cost of doing business has soared, driven by energy cost, insecurity, and volatile exchange rates.
Proffering the way forward, they were unanimous in their submissions that, while macroeconomic reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and other relevant government agencies are necessary, they are not sufficient on their own to achieve fast, sustained, and inclusive growth.
According to them, current policies, are rather encouraging business closures, low consumer spending, and high cost of doing business with the attendant rising poverty and shrinking opportunities.
They have called for urgent retooling of sectors, like agriculture, manufacturing and trade considered as critical for job cteation and as well, drive employment.
Also, rising population and unemployment are considered as twin crisis threatening the Progress of Nigeria as they put pressure on the economy to create jobs and provide services. This is even as the high rate of youth unemployment is denying and even threatening the progress of country.
Limited Private Sector Investment, ocassioned by dearth of credit facilities, insufficient investment in productive sectors, they further argue, hinder economic growth. This is even as government’s direct involvement in some economic activities are seen by the analysts as having the usual ‘crowding out effect’
According to Professor Franklin Ngwu, there is need for a serious diversification of the economy focusing on sectors like agriculture, manufacturin to drive growth.
Ngwu, who spoke on the Arise Television’s ThisDayLive programme on Sunday, July 27, noted that increase in the private sector Investment as well in productive sectors and infrastructure will lead to creation of more job opportunities.
He faulted low performance of agriculture in the last report, regarding it as serious ommissions or misalignment in the oart ofgovernment. He called for more efforts in agriculture livestock pr production as he claims that government lacks policy directions.
Speaking further, he said that there is need for clarity and engagements targeted at agriculture and manufacturing, possibly on regional basis for maximum results.
“Government should organise retreats with the various regions and set targets for specific periods. As it is now, no engagement for the real sectors despite the presence of the ministers and coordinating minister for the economy. It’s unfortunate that government seems to be more occupied with politics than governance, hence no synergy between the sectors. For instance, government has about three budgets running concurrently, showing either government lacks capacity or weakness in governance,” he added.
Renowned economist and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Bismarck Rewane, has described the economy as “limping rather than leaping,” despite the much mouthed rebasing of the GDP, which is showing marginal growth, but at variance with economic realities.
In a recent FDC, Economic Bulletin, Rewane said, “Nigeria’s GDP rebase is approximately $250 billion. Nigeria is still the fourth largest economy in Africa behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria. In the world, it is number 40. The goal before was for Nigeria to be within the top 20 countries in the world. We are now number 40. The income per head in Nigeria is $1,000 compared to South Africa, where it’s $5,000. Our share of global GDP is 0.23% and our share of the global population is 2.9%. This economic growth shows an upward trend.
Well, we still have work to do. And let me make it clear, the goal, as pointed out by the president, is that we should be at $1 trillion by 2030. Today, we are growing at 3.1%. For us to go from $250 billion to $1 trillion, we need to grow at 15%. That’s not going to happen quickly except certain things change.”
In a recent article, ‘Nigeria’s N373 Triilion GDP, A Restart For The Economy’ published on metrobusinessnews platform, Victor Ogiemwonyi, a retired Investment Banker said, “The rebased GDP should be a good foundation to build on. Whether we will be able to triple this GDP size, by 2030, growing at 3.13%, as in 2024, is a different kettle of fish. There is no harm in trying. I guess the message from the Administration, is that they are serious about this.
My take is, if we end up with a $750b economy, we will be glad with it. We definitely, need a higher rate of growth to achieve it.
A $1trillion economy, will greatly reduce poverty and improve citizens standard of living.
So, it is a worthwhile goal.
While this is do-able, many other things will have to be aligned and on the same forward match.
One of the key additions to the GDP figure was the addition of the informal economy. This has become a large part of the economy no body was counting into our GDP. The impact of this sector of the economy has a lot of implications. Imagine the large population employed in the informal sector no one counts as part of the employment statistics. This has distorted that unemployment measurement for a long time. The National bureau of statistics ( NBS) recent review of our often published unemployment figure of 30%, was criticised as political when the revised figure was now 4.5%. What many of these critics did not process, was the fact that 30% of 200m population is 60m… if you consider only the adult population ready and available for work, the figure will even be more crazy. it will be hard to accept that 60m Nigerians actually are doing nothing everyday. A 4.5% which is about 10m unemployed is more reflective of our unemployed adult population ready and available for work. Many of the larger figure of 60m claimed to be unemployed are in the informal economy and may be under employed but not unemployed. This new numbers represent a more likely situation of our unemployment figures. They all indicate the proper restart for the economy.
To achieve our goal, Government must continue on the reform strategy, every area where reform is needed, must be attended to. The Government must make clear and consistent policies that everyone can bet on…
If we are to achieve this goal in
5 years as targeted by this Administration, every effort must be made to speed up our infrastructure development.
It is needed everywhere, whether is electricity, rail , roads, ports and Airports. The most obvious constraints people point to, is the Budget. Where are we going to get the financing from ? Fortunately, there are plenty of sources to finance infrastructure, if the required attention and sincerity of purpose is behind it.
There are Infrastructure Funds and infrastructure corporations, all over the world looking for the right opportunity as in Nigeria. Many of our large infrastructure projects will find financing, if we put the right policies and incentives in place.
Electricity must be prioritised. We must aim to have 80% of the population guaranteed stable electricity in 5 years. This alone, will turbo charge the economy. If we add connections on rail and road transportation, for a large part of the population, for instance, …a trader can get on a train from Maiduguri to Lagos, shop for goods in Lagos, and be on his way back to base in Maiduguri , on the same day, is the type of vision, that will drive, our goal, to be a $1trillion economy by 2030.
The other two key ingredients to ensure success in reaching the goal will be to take the issue of our security seriously. Let’s start by decentralising it. Let’s have police at the Local Government, State and National levels… this will leave the Nigeria police to be a federal police with clear duties and authority to be more efficient as a police force. This one step alone, will immediately enhance security. Without this step, the current waste of security budgets without results will continue.
Let each of the policing units, be held accountable for its jurisdiction and be properly funded. Proper security will lead to political stability, which is another main ingredient required to strengthen our economy and our way to a $1 Trillion economy.
Corruption As The Big Elephant In The Room. Every development objective we want to achieve, will be undermined by the outrageous corruption in our system. We have to start, looking at it differently. This will include fixing our Courts and ensuring the rule of law prevails.
May be our current approach is faulty. We may have to take a look at preventive measures that will bring immediate solutions and change enforcement to plea bargain that yields results and serve as deterrent.
Corruption has eaten too deep, digging ourselves out, is what we need to do now. Anything quick, that will provide solution, is what we should focus on.”
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Accorfing to Friday Ameh, Lagos based analyst, “Until recently, the agency (NBS) had earned accolades for lifting Nigeria’s statistical integrity and transparency. But, the fear of it, succumbing to political pressures, diluting, delaying, or even withdrawing uncomfortable data to serve alleged ecternal interests are rife and seem to be real. What’s the purpose of alleged external influences on an agency the public looks unto for credible data for planning purpose at the expense of tax payers? “
Also, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) and Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) have warned that the rebased GDP would not achieve the desired goal without structural reforms and commitments.
MAN’s Director General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said that while the rebasing confirms Nigeria’s economy is statistically larger, it masks the country’s weak real growth and deep-seated structural deficiencies.
“The revised nominal GDP estimate is largely the result of better data capture in agriculture, services, and the informal economy. However, MAN strongly warns against mistaking this nominal growth for real economic advancement,” Ajayi-Kadir stated.
NECA, on the other side said, the exercise revealed Nigeria’s untapped economic potentiaI, requiring government’s meaningful reforms.
“We must take a coordinated approach—enhancing productivity, empowering SMEs, improving infrastructure, and implementing evidence-based fiscal and monetary policies,” Association’s Director General, Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, said
