Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.22% in June 2025, down from 22.97% recorded in May 2025.
This is according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday.
However, while food inflation rate in June 2025 at 21.97% on a year-on-year basis, recorded significant decline of 18.93 percent from 40.87 percent in June last year, monthly reading was 3.25% in June 2025, up by 1.07 percentage points of 2.19% in May 2025.
Analysts have expressed cautious optimism on the outlook being tempered by sticky food inflation, persistent insecurity, and demand pressures
According to them, the outlook remains mixed as food inflation, insecurity, and festive demand remain key pressure points, despite currency stability, policy measures, and seasonal supply patterns that could offer room for short-term relief.
To them, the July’s inflation trajectory, for instance, will largely depend on how these opposing forces evolve , adding that the rising insecurity, seasonal changes and transportation challenges, among others, are still areas of concern.
NBS data showed that on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 11.97% lower than the rate recorded in June 2024, which was at 34.19%.
“This shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in June 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., June 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100,” the NBS stated.
The NBS noted that, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in June 2025 stood at 1.68%, representing an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the 1.53% recorded in May 2025.
This indicates that the average price level rose at a faster rate in June compared to May 2025.
The percentage change in the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12 months ending June 2025, compared to the previous 12-month period, was 26.58%—a 3.42 percentage point decline from the 30.00% recorded in June 2024.
Urban vs Rural inflation trends
The latest NBS report shows that Nigeria’s urban inflation rate stood at 22.72% in June 2025, representing a decrease of 13.83 percentage points compared to 36.55% recorded in June 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate rose to 2.11% in June 2025, up by 0.71 percentage points from 1.40% in May 2025.
The corresponding 12-month average for urban inflation was 28.16% in June 2025, which is 3.92 percentage points lower than the 32.08% reported in June 2024.
Meanwhile, the rural inflation rate in June 2025 stood at 20.85% year-on-year, down by 11.24 percentage points from 32.09% in June 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation was 0.63% in June 2025, representing a decline of 1.20 percentage points compared to 1.83% recorded in May 2025.
The 12-month average for rural inflation in June 2025 was 24.65%, 3.5 percentage points lower than the 28.15% recorded in June 2024.
Food inflation
The food inflation rate in June 2025 stood at 21.97% on a year-on-year basis, representing a significant decline of 18.93 percentage points compared to 40.87% recorded in June 2024. This sharp drop is largely attributed to the change in the base year used for calculation.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose to 3.25% in June 2025, up by 1.07 percentage points from 2.19% in May 2025. The increase was driven by rising prices of key food items such as dried green peas, fresh pepper, dried white shrimps, crayfish, fresh meat, fresh tomatoes, plantain flour, and ground pepper, among others.
The average annual food inflation rate for the 12 months ending June 2025 was 28.28%, which is 7.02 percentage points lower than the 35.30% recorded in June 2024.
Core inflation
Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 22.76% in June 2025 on a year-on-year basis. This represents a decline of 4.64 percentage points compared to the 27.4% recorded in June 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate rose to 2.46% in June 2025, up by 1.36 percentage points from 1.10% recorded in May 2025.
The average 12-month annual core inflation rate for the period ending June 2025 was 24.14%, which is 0.04 percentage points higher than the 24.01% recorded in June 2024
