Nigeria’s food inflation rate rose to 12.12% year-on-year in February 2026, pushing the indicator back into double-digit territory after a sharp drop to single digits in January.
Specifically, the February’s inflation reading reflects an acceleration in both food and core baskets, which increased to 4.69 percent and 0.89 percent respectively, from -6.02 percent and -1.69 percent respectively.
Food inflation saw the largest jump month-on-month by 10.70 percent while core inflation rose by 2.5 percent.
Data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the nation’s Bureau of Statistics, (NBS) report released on Monday shows that food inflation increased from 8.89% year-on-year in January 2026, marking its first single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest level in 174 months to 12.12% in February 2026, representing a 3.23 percentage point rise month-on-month.
The headline inflation eased slightly to 15.06 percent year-on-year (YoY), however the spike in its month-on-month (MoM) figure to 2.01 percent shows price pressures associated with Ramadan, a combination of early bulk-buying by households and reduced farming activities drives prices for key staples.
NBS reported that the Consumer Price Index declined to 15.06 percent in February 2026, from 15.10 percent in January 2026.
Month-on-Month, headline inflation saw an upward movement to 2.01 percent from -2.88 percent the previous month.
The analysts say the ongoing Middle East and heightened insecurity in the country would further spike the inflation figures in March, and beyond, noting that food inflation, however, may edge higher on a month-on-month basis.
Bismarck Rewane, one of the country’s foremost economists and chief executive of the Financial Derivatives Company, (FDC) in the current KoKo edition said
“Nigeria’s inflation rate declined marginally from 15.10% to 15.06% in February, but is likely to spike in March. Escalating Middle East tensions are pushing global oil prices higher, raising fuel prices and transportation costs. While higher oil prices boost Nigeria’s oil revenue and external reserves, they also drive inflationary pressures across the economy, particularly through higher logistics and food prices.
As a result, the recent slowdown in inflation may prove temporary, with consumers likely to feel the impact of rising costs in the coming months.”
NBS Report:
The government agency said that although the latest reading reflects an increase from January’s historic slowdown, food inflation remains far below the level recorded a year earlier. The NBS report shows that the February figure is 14.86 percentage points lower than the 26.98% recorded in February 2025.
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“The Food inflation rate in February 2026 was 12.12% on a year-on-year basis. This was 14.86% points lower compared to the rate recorded in February 2025 (26.98%).”
The analysts added that the February figures, a 4.69% month-on-month increase, signalled renewed upward pressure in food prices.
The NBS attributed the increase to rising prices of key food commodities across markets, including the “average prices of Beans, Carrots, Okazi Leaf, Cassava Tuber, Crayfish, Millet Flour, Yam Flour, Snails, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – dried ungrinded, cow peas, etc.”
The NBS reported that the average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending February 2026 stood at 19.08%, sharply lower than the 37.40% recorded in February 2025.
“The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.08%, which was 18.31% points lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2025 (37.40%),” the report said.
Kogi Leads States With Highest Of 26.91 Percent
Figures from the states showed disparities in food inflation figures as data from the CPI report showed that on a year-on- year basis, Kogi recorded the highest food inflation rate at 26.91%, followed by Adamawa at 23.12% and Benue at 21.89%.
At the lower end of the spectrum, Katsina recorded the slowest rise in food prices at 5.09%, while Bauchi and Imo posted 7.09% and 7.65% respectively.
Month-on-month data showed that Bayelsa recorded the highest increase in food prices at 8.81%, followed by Ebonyi at 8.51% and Edo at 7.72%. Meanwhile, Katsina recorded a slight decline of -0.70%, while Nasarawa and Kano recorded increases of 0.17% and 1.39%, respectively.
