Local and international tensions ocassioned by brewing crisis in the Niger Delta region as well as trade wars orchestrated by United States’ Donald Trump’s administration are threatening the realisation of the objectives of Nigeria’s N54.99trillion, 2025 budget.
The reported derermination of OPEC+ to proceed with output increases in oil production by 138,000 barrels per day in April has started imparting negatively on the prices of oil at the International market, threatening Nigeria’s 2025 budget.
OPEC+’s move will be the first output hike since 2022, aligning with Trump’s push for lower prices.
Consequently, Brent futures fell by 1.68% to $70.42pb on Tuesday triggered by OPEC+ move to increase oil production by 138,000 barrels per day in April.
According to Bismarck Rewane, CEO, Financial Derivatives Company, the development, “will lower oil revenue and increase the fiscal deficit.”
Some analysts say the ethnic colouration the Rivers State crisis is assuming portends danger for the region and the country as a whole.
For instance, the Ijaw National Congress (INC) on Tuesday said the recent Supreme Court ruling on the Rivers State political crisis could lead to widespread instability in the Niger Delta.
President, INC, Prof. Benjamin Okaba, in a statement, alleged that the judgment failed to acknowledge the historical and political sacrifices made by the Ijaw people in Rivers State’s governance.
He said any attempt to undermine Governor Siminalayi Fubara would have dire consequences for national peace and economic stability.
He said the Rivers political crisis must not be treated as ordinary politicking, stressing that the Ijaw people would not tolerate any attempt to undermine their place in Nigerian politics.
According to Okaba, if Fubara’s tenure is truncated, the INC cannot guarantee the sustenance of the current peace in the Niger Delta.
He noted that the Ijaw people had played a crucial role in shaping the state’s leadership for decades.
“In 1999, an Ijaw leader, Chief Marshall Harry, was instrumental in securing the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ticket for Dr. Peter Odili, despite a formidable challenge from Sergeant Awuse. Harry further ensured Odili’s victory against a Kalabari opponent, Chief Ebenezer Isokariari of the All Peoples Party (APP).
“In 2003, the INC recalled that when Marshall Harry backed Sergeant Awuse’s governorship ambition, it was not Awuse but Harry himself who was assassinated, marking a painful loss for the Ijaw people.
“By 2007, Ijaw leaders such as Soboma George and Farrah Dagogo played a decisive role in securing victory for Sir Celestine Omehia, while Prince Igodo, a Kalabari-Ijaw warlord, was killed during Omehia’s swearing-in to prevent security breaches.
“Similarly, in 2011, when Rotimi Amaechi sought to nominate Pastor Tonye Cole as a minister, Dame Patience Jonathan, the wife of then-President Goodluck Jonathan, ensured that Nyesom Wike took the slot instead. The INC lamented that despite these consistent sacrifices by the Ijaw people, an Ikwerre political elite now seeks to frustrate the first riverine governor in decades.”
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Also, U.S. President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, along with fresh duties on Chinese goods, sparking trade wars that could slam economic growth and raise prices for Americans still smarting from years of high inflation.
The moves, which could upend nearly $2.2 trillion in annual trade, came after Trump declared that the top three U.S. trading partners had failed to do enough to stem the flow of fentanyl and its precursor chemicals into the U.S.
In an address to Congress, Trump said further tariffs would follow on April 2, including “reciprocal tariffs” and non-tariff actions aimed balancing out years of trade imbalances.
“Other countries have used tariffs against us for decades, and now it’s our turn,” Trump said, citing high duties imposed on U.S. goods by India, South Korea, the European Union, China and others.
China’s foreign affairs ministry shot back defiantly: “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
“Nigeria is not an island and to that extent cannot be isolated from happenings on international space. Our issues are compounded with the country’s heavy reliance on oil as a major source of her foreign exchange. This calls for thinking outside the box rather than the rhetoric we have been fed with, over the years,” says an analyst
