The Ukraine war may result in Russia becoming a ‘diminished power’, says Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies King’s College London.
Speaking on a panel at Davos, Freedman explains that Russia has lost its aura since the invasion began.
That has implications for those who rely on its power or are afraid of its power.
“Russia is already diminished,” Freedman says, pointing out it has used up a lot of its power, such as three years of tank production, in the three months since the invasion.
Putin has blown it...it’s clearly a blunder.
So, the ‘Big Three’ powers of the US, China and Russia could be more like a two and a half.
Freedman agrees that the Ukraine war is a ‘turning point in history’ (WEF’s theme this year) --the problem is we don’t know how it’s going to turn out.
It’s a classic crisis, as things can get an awful lot worse, or an awful lot better, he explains.
One possibility is that Russia is a diminished power as a result of this, Freedman says.
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Freedman also cautions against setting terms for the conclusion of the war (such as Ukraine losing some territory to Russia, as has been suggested).
“This is not our war”, he says. The West has war aims, but it is Ukraine’s war.
And it is dangerous to set terms for the conclusion of this war which Ukraine might find difficult to meet, or don’t want to meet at all.
