Nigeria’s GDP Grows 5% In Q2, On Non Oil Sector Performance, Strongest In Seven Yrs

Nigeria’s economy grew 5.01% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021, much faster than 0.51 per cent of the first quarter, and marking the third consecutive quarterly growth since the recession of the third quarter and the strongest since the last quarter of 2014.

In a cautious optimism by some analysts, the Q2 2021 growth was essentially impacted by the base year effect, as it is higher than the -6.10% growth rate recorded in same Q2 2020 and the 0.51% recorded in Q1 2021 year on year.

However, the current rising prices of foodstuff typified by growing impoverishment of most Nigerians who are barely managing to live with one meal daily and burgeoning labour market, they argue, seem to have taken shine and excitement from what ordinarily should call for celebrations by Nigerians.

However, the growth was said to be driven by non oil sector and the analysts see the development as indicative of the return of business and economic activity near levels at pre-Covid-19 Era.

The state of the economy is contained in the latest report by the nation’s Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Thursday.

Specifically, the report observed that the growth was driven by the non-oil sector which grew 6.7 per cent as against 0.8 per cent in Q1, and was boosted by trade, information and communications, transportation, electricity, agriculture and manufacturing.

In deed, unlike the non-oil sector, the oil sector shrank 12.65 per cent owing to a 2.2 per cent fall in the previous period.

Also, in the second quarter of the year, average daily crude oil production stood at 1.61 million barrels per day, down from 1.72 mbps in Q4 and 1.81 mbps a year ago. On a quarterly basis, the GDP decreased 0.8 per cent.
The NBS report noted steady recovery was observed since the end of 2020, with the gradual return of commercial activity as well as local and international travel, accounted for the significant increase in growth performance relative to the second quarter of 2020 when nationwide restrictions took effect. Year to date, real GDP grew 2.70 per cent in 2021 compared to -2.18 per cent for the first half of 2020.

“Nevertheless, quarter on quarter, real GDP grew at -0.79 per cent in Q2 2021 compared to Q1 2021, reflecting slightly slower economic activity than the preceding quarter due largely to seasonality. In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N39,123,713.32 million in nominal terms, higher than the second quarter of 2020 with aggregate GDP of N34,023,197.60 million, indicating a year on year nominal growth rate of 14.99 per cent”.

NBS also stated that the nominal GDP growth rate in Q2 2021 was higher than the -2.80 per cent growth recorded in the second quarter of 2020 when economic activities slowed sharply at the outset of the pandemic. The Q2 2021 nominal growth rate was also higher than the 12.25 per cent growth recorded in Q1 2021.
The real growth of the oil sector was –12.65 per cent (year-on-year) in Q2 2021 indicating a decrease of –6.02 per cent points relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020. Growth decreased by – 10.44 per cent points when compared to Q1 2021 which was –2.21 per cent.

For the first half of 2021, real GDP was recorded at -7.13 per cent, compared to -0.80 per cent for the first half of 2020, the performance reflecting lower oil output. Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -20.35 per cent in Q2 2021. The Oil sector contributed 7.42 per cent to total real GDP in Q2 2021, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 and down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 8.93 per cent and 9.25 per cent respectively.

The non-oil sector grew by 6.74 per cent in real terms in Q2 2021, higher by 12.80 per cent points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2020 and 5.95 per cent points higher than the first quarter of 2021.
In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 92.58 per cent to the nation’s GDP in the second quarter of 2021, higher from shares recorded in the second quarter of 2020 which was 91.07 per cent and the first quarter of 2021 recorded as 90.75 per cent.