In what analysts attribute to rising number of people searching for jobs and or people previously working have lost their jobs and are now in search of jobs, may have swollen the number of unemployed Nigerians to 21,764,617, representing a 27.1 per cent rise from the 23.1 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2018, according to the nation’s statistics agency, National Bureau of Statistics, (NBS).
However, the agency attributed the figures released today to “Often, it is a combination of these two,“.
It further referred to the report as an ‘Abridged Labour Force Survey under COVID-19 for August 2020’.
Lagose based energy analyst, Friday Ameh sees the development as “tragic for an economy that is bedeviled with many viruses like corruption, ineptitude leadership, conflicting and contradictory monetary and fiscal policies, lowing oil prices on only her foreign exchange earner product, among others.”
More worrisome, according to the analysts is the fact that the major casualties are the youth who are supposed to be the drivers of the economy.
Specifically, the break down showed that the unemployment was highest among the youths, especially those in the age bracket (15-24 and 25-34 years).
Unemployment within the age bracket (15-24 years) was 40.8%. These categories of people are new school
leavers with little or no experience.
Indeed, they are also unlikely to be negatively impacted by the COVID pandemic due to their high immune system.
In fact, Nigeria’s median age is 18.3 years. Youth unemployment
increased to 34.9% from 29.7% while underemployment rose to 28.2% from 25.7% in Q3’18. According to Bismarck Rewane, chief executive of the Financial Derivatives Company. (FDC), in the current Economic Bulletin for August 14, released today, “This suggests that the job creation level is inadequate to absorb the growing number of graduates that enter into the
labour market on an annual basis.
” The continued rise in the unemployment numbers and a possible spike in subsequent quarters due to the
COVID disruptions further support the need for more aggressive measures to reduce the pandemic effect on
growth and unemployment. The risk to this remains the fear of a second wave in infections.”
However, Rewane observed that the long awaited report did not include figures for the past six quarters (Q4’18 – Q1’20).” “This will have a distortionary impact on the trend analysis of unemployment as the Q2’20 numbers will only be
compared to Q3’18. It could also lead to a significant bias in policy decision making.
Nigeria’s unemployment rate climbed to the highest level in a decade in Q2’20 (27.1%) from 23.1% in Q3’18.
“The country’s unemployment rate has more than doubled in the past four years as the economy struggled
to recover from the 2016 recession. It is worth mentioning that the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator, i.e. the impact is felt after the cycle has changed. Therefore, the unemployment rate
could be much higher in subsequent quarters due to the COVID-induced economic paralysis.
“The pandemic disrupted economic activities across virtually all sectors of the economy, making it more difficult for output growth to keep up with the fast growing population (2.6%) and creating some disequilibrium in
the labour market.”
Commenting further, the foremost economist said the, “Underemployment rate followed a similar trend, rising at a faster pace to 28.6%
from 20.1% in Q3’18. This shows deterioration in the quality of employment.
The misery index, which is
unemployment + underemployment + inflation, is now 68.26%, making Nigeria the 6th most miserable country in the world,”.